Incidence Trend and Climate Influence on Dengue Fever in Banjarmasin, Indonesia: A Path Analysis Approach
Abstract
Material and Methods: DHF data were collected monthly from the health centers through the Health Office from 2016- 2023. Climate data (temperature, humidity and rainfall) were obtained from the Banjarbaru Class II Meteorology and Geophysics Agency. Decomposition approach and path analysis were used in this study.
Results: The results show that DHF cases exhibited a strong seasonal pattern, with the peak occurring in the first quarter of each year. The incidence of DHF in Banjarmasin has shown an increasing trend since 2016, with the highest incidence reported in 2023 (88 cases, 12.10 per 100,000 population). Temperature had the most significant direct impact on DHF cases, followed by rainfall and humidity. Humidity and temperature also indirectly affected dengue cases, as demonstrated in the path analysis (direct effect of rainfall: 0.269; indirect effect through temperature: -0.0643). These results underscore the influence of climate on the incidence of dengue fever.
Conclusion: Case trends can reveal the seasonal pattern of DHF cases. Mitigation efforts by local health authorities early in the year are essential to reducing morbidity and mortality from dengue fever in Banjarmasin.
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