Comparing Pediatric Index of Mortality 3, Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction 2 (PELOD-2), and Modified PELOD-2 scores for Mortality Prognosis in Vietnamese Children with Multiple Organ Dysfunction Syndrome
Abstract
Objective: To evaluate the performance of three scores, the Pediatric Index of Mortality 3 (PIM-3), the Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction 2 (PELOD-2), and the modified PELOD-2 scores, in predicting mortality in multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) children in Vietnam.
Material and Methods: This cross-sectional study of MODS children admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) of a central children’s hospital in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam, was undertaken from April 2019 to June 2021. All three scores were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for discrimination and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test for calibration.
Results: Of eighty-four subjects, the median age was 24.5 months and the overall mortality rate was 63.1%. ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve of PIM-3, PELOD-2, and modified PELOD-2 for predicting the death of MODS children were 0.77, 0.89, and 0.89, respectively. With individual cut-offs, the PIM-3, PELOD-2, and modified PELOD-2 scores had sensitivities for predicting mortality of 81.1%, 79.2%, and 81.1%, respectively, and specificities of 61.3%, 87.1%, and 80.6%, respectively. All three scores performed well in the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, indicating high calibration between predicted and observed mortalities (PIM-3: χ²=4.36, p-value=0.823; PELOD-2: χ²=4.837, p-value=0.775; modified PELOD-2: χ²=6.082, p-value=0.638).
Conclusion: The PELOD-2 and modified PELOD-2 scores showed a better mortality prognosis than the PIM-3 score. Compared to the PELOD-2, the modified PELOD-2 with fewer parameters can still predict mortality well in Vietnamese children with MODS when using a cut-off score ≥9.
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